Insights

In the penultimate answer at Wednesday’s PMQs, Sir Keir Starmer retorted: “I have full confidence in the Chancellor, thank you.” Most Labour MPs we spoke to after Rachel Reeves’ Spring Statement agreed, although, as we report below, some still have deep doubts.

Immediately following yesterday’s Spring Statement, Hawthorn spoke to a dozen Labour MPs to gauge their reaction. This is what we learned.

Many Labour MPs who talked to Hawthorn expected a dismal outlook but, on reflection, this Statement comfortably surpassed their expectations.

There is optimism from Labour’s progressives

For a great number of Labour MPs, the Statement was far more positive than anticipated. A Labour Parliamentary Private Secretary said: “I don’t know how she managed it, but that was radically better than expected.” Others praised the difficult political choices made by the Chancellor to restore her fiscal headroom.

Many MPs viewed the Statement as a necessary evil to maintain financial discipline. “It was necessary. It was painful, and it’ll go down badly on the doorstep, but someone had to be the adults,” said a Labour Growth Group MP. A junior minister added a more cynical take, noting: “That’s why Cameron’s ministers were in and out of Labour HQ pre-election. They were giving us the blueprint to austerity.”

A smattering of other views:

• A Labour MP from the 2024 intake said: “Good news on growth in the years ahead. Shows planning reform essential and can get us growing whilst helping people get the homes, hospitals, and roads they need. Strong performance from the Chancellor.”

• A member of the Labour Growth Group of MPs said: “Build stuff – get growth.”

• A Labour Select Committee member said: “Better than anticipated – a strong statement continuing the work of the Budget. Getting the economy back on stable footing and supporting broken public services.”

• A Labour Select Committee member said: “Loved Rachel calling the opposition parties the anti-growth coalition.”

Predictable criticism from the Left

However, not all Labour MPs were satisfied. One from the Socialist Campaign Group voiced sharp opposition to the welfare cuts, stating: “We’ve just plunged 50,000 kids into poverty unnecessarily.” A senior Labour think-tanker echoed concerns, saying: “Growth forecasts are very depressing. The planning stuff is a chink of light, but perhaps we should go further and faster.”

For some, the long-term strategy provided reassurance, despite the pain. A Labour MP from a marginal northern seat admitted: “It’s going to get harder before it gets better. What’s important is that we have a whole Parliament to get things back on track.”

Conservative and outside reactions

Opposition MPs were quick to respond. A former Tory Cabinet Minister was sceptical: “If Reeves wants to give business real hope for the future, her statement must now be backed up by policies which demonstrate the government actually understands how business works.” Meanwhile, a senior right-wing think-tanker conceded: “I thought she did really well. Very reliant on planning reform for growth though, and they’re already behind on that.”

What’s Next?

While the Spring Statement delivered a short-term fiscal fix-up job, the real test will come in the Summer Spending Review and the Autumn Budget. Labour MPs—whether cautiously optimistic or deeply sceptical—will be watching closely as Reeves navigates the next phase of fiscal juggling.

If you’d like to speak to Hawthorn about our Political Advisory offering, please email Mark Burr at m.burr@hawthornadvisors.com.