With the election of Donald Trump to a second term as President, all eyes turn to what’s next in the U.S. and global economy.
For businesses and executives, there are clear signs of potential positive momentum, tinged with questions for the longer run, especially for multinational and non-U.S. based companies.
A momentum moment
For the U.S. economy, Trump’s reelection moment may catalyze a period of momentum that propels markets higher. That potential for momentum was reflected in initial investor sentiment, with the S&P 500 pushing upward approximately 2% in the opening moments of trading the morning after the election.
If the Federal Reserve continues its push to lower interest rates, and businesses seize on the likelihood of reduced regulation, lower taxes, and the removal of election season uncertainty, then we may see a wave of corporate investment, hiring and consumer confidence that will buoy profits, share prices and valuations.
On the regulatory front, it seems clear that appointees like Lina Khan at the Federal Trade Commission will be replaced by smaller government, anti-regulation nominees. In the financial sector, bank M&A has been slowed by prolonged regulatory reviews of pending deals, which will undoubtedly be reversed in a second Trump Administration. And, the Justice Department’s increasingly active pursuit of antitrust cases should abate.
This will likely mean an uptick in transaction activity across sectors, but particularly in tech and financial services. Such an uptick in corporate deal activity can create a flywheel economic effect that is beneficial to investors, though the effect on employment must be monitored carefully.
What of tariffs and trade?
For non-U.S. companies, and those that trade across borders, the picture is more uncertain.
The first Trump Administration was marked with significant, and sometimes surprising, trade disputes, often with traditional economic and geopolitical allies. There was a fight with Canada over lumber, tariffs on French wine, and a burgeoning trade war with China that continued into the Biden Administration.
Over the course of the 2024 campaign, Trump ramped up his rhetoric on tariffs, proposing 60% duties on goods from China, a 20% tax on goods imported from any other country, and punitive tariffs on companies like John Deere that move manufacturing out of the United States.
While Conservative economic orthodoxy would oppose such moves, Trump will have the opportunity to pressure his party to support him on trade, especially with a Republican Senate, and a seemingly likely Republican House of Representatives. Global corporates will need to watch closely – and engage heavily – to shape the potential compromises in this area, as the few remaining moderate Republicans may be open to pushing for toned down versions of Trump’s proposals.
If Trump is successful on tariffs, it could blunt economic momentum, despite the overall eased regulatory approach he’s likely to take.
Broader uncertainty
The animating feature of the first Trump Administration for businesses and executives was uncertainty. With a President prone to governing by Tweet, corporates had to watch minute-by-minute lest their firms or industries come under rhetorical or policy pressure unexpectedly.
Much has been made of Trump’s campaign trail focus on retribution – both on policy matters, as with tariffs, and politically.
While some might take comfort in Trump’s election night statement about his intention to “heal our country,” it behooves corporate leaders to watch carefully for signals about how a second Trump Administration might affect their companies and sectors in unanticipated ways. Monitoring and contingency planning should start immediately.
Science for Good: Anita Anand; Hayaatun Sillem, CEO Royal Academy of Engineering; Dorothy Chou, Public Policy Leader at DeepMind; Professor Irene Tracey, Vice Chancellor of the University of Oxford
For the past four years, I have sat down with my friend Roger Highfield, who is the Science Director of the Science Museum Group and is also working, in a personal capacity, as my collaborator on the Braemar Summit, to discuss themes.
The first year, 2021, was straightforward. It was the year that the world looked to science to save it from an epidemic. In some places Covid deniers were offering lemon and ginger as a solution. Meanwhile, a group of scientists in Oxford were working on a vaccine. Roger and I discussed how the collaboration of scientists, academics, policy makers and investors had cracked a global issue and wondered if there was a way of continuing this intellectual exchange outside the laboratory. We continued the discussion in September 2021 as the Oxford scientists, including Dame Sarah Gilbert, stepped off the coach in Braemar and headed towards the Fife Arms to the sound of pipers. The Braemar Summit was born. The theme that year was the New Enlightenment.
Each year, we have tried to match the theme to the direction of science and global politics. In 2023 we called it the Great Acceleration, to take account of the super computers and the impact of AI. In 2024 we went for a warmer theme, Science for Good.
Despite wars, superstition, misinformation and incivility in the public sphere, we were witnessing beacons of science. We quoted Marie Curie; “Now is the time to understand more, so that we may fear less.”
In medicine for instance, there have been landmark breakthroughs in treating some of the worst diseases and conditions, through drugs, or genetic interventions.
There is evidence that a bold and determined course on tackling climate change, including investment, will benefit the economy as well as human existence. And robotics, which has advanced enormously, is now looking for design. Hardware will be a new source of delight. So creativity, the collaboration between art and science has been another theme for this year.
We were in Braemar in spirit rather than in actual location, holding the summit this year in the second week of September at the studio of the inventor and designer Thomas Heatherwick, in King’s Cross, with a dinner at the Francis Crick Institute. Also in the spirit, we found an international concert pianist, Stefania Passamonte, to play Chopin and Liszt on a grand piano in the great hall of the Crick, with hologram screens on either side of her.
Performance by the Royal College of Music string quartet
We were in the heart of the Knowledge Quarter and were delighted to welcome collaboration with DeepMind, based down the road, and our friends from Aria, Advanced Research and Invention Agency, housed within The British Library. Thomas Heatherwick spoke eloquently about his mission to humanise public space and humanity was at the heart of subsequent discussions.
We began with Professor Sir John Bell, on the title of science and ambition. As the new President of The Ellison Institute of Technology (EIT) in Oxford, which aims to tackle health, food security, clean energy government policy Sir John has set himself a task.
Science and Ambition: Professor Sir John Bell, immunologist and geneticist
In the same altitude, we continued with a discussion entitled, The Age of the Cure followed by TheFutureoftheNHS from Richard Meddings, Chair of NHS England. The sessions and speakers on stage were exhilarating but it was perhaps the conversations in between, over coffee or dinner which were most memorable. Many guests who come to Braemar mention the intellectual stimulation but also the geniality. It is an open-minded, good-natured event where you can discuss anything. Computer scientists debate with philosophers, economists and business leaders listen to dreamers. Even physicists talk to biologists. It is not transactional; it is genuinely conversational. It is the joy of serendipity.
Sarah Sands, Partner, Hawthorn Advisors and Braemar Co-creator
Artificial Intelligence (AI) has emerged as a prominent topic of discussion in various spheres, including board rooms, government departments, and regulatory offices.
Yesterday, Hawthorn organised a private breakfast panel, moderated by Emily Sheffield, that brought together leaders from the media and creative industries, government officials, and regulators. The objective of the event was to explore effective strategies for harnessing the advantages of AI while addressing potential risks.
We’re particularly grateful to our esteemed panellists who contributed their valuable insights: Stephan Pretorius, Global Chief Technology Officer for WPP plc; Sophie Jones, Chief Executive Officer at British Phonographic Industry (BPI); and Baroness Tina Stowell, Chair of the Lords Communications & Digital Committee.
After 15 years of ‘free’ money, we’re now seeing what breaks when interest rates shoot up. Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, Credit Suisse, as well as wider confidence, have all vapourised at speed. It is difficult to say where the next fractures will appear but there are undoubted stresses in the private markets, asset management and real estate and with those who borrowed excessively in the good times. What next and what are the implications for our clients?
Banks will become more boring The irony is that the framework put in place after the last financial crisis has worked well (especially in UK and Switzerland, less so in the USA where some of the new regulations weren’t implemented). Bank resolutions have been for the private sector, the taxpayer hasn’t (yet) been troubled. But in a sense, the regulations put in place since 2008 are fighting the last war. We can expect the regulatory burden to tighten further, a consequent fall in lending appetite, credit will become scarcer and that means slower economic growth.
Less money for more frivolous and ambitious ventures With credit contracting, more marginal start-ups become unviable, fund raising becomes more difficult and we’ll likely see the failure of some fintech, medtech and other businesses. We’ll see greater realism in the commercials of many businesses – cash conservation will be king and a quicker path to profit will become imperative.
Approaching the peak of the interest rate cycle Central Banks have two main roles – to control inflation and to keep order and stability in the financial markets. The ECB ‘chose’ price stability last week and raised rates again. However, the events of the last two weeks will have been very deflationary – and that means the likes of the Fed and Bank of England will not need to raise rates as fast, if at all, to contain inflation. That said, core price rises are still persistent and wage expectations are still rising. While we may have peaked in terms of interest rates, those rates will still remain higher for longer and will not fall as quickly as the market is expecting.
It’s a reminder that risk, in all its guises, needs to be managed and diversified A company should not leave all its cash in one bank – or indeed rely on one bank to provide all its sources of finance. Credit risk, operational risk, market risk all require attention. As does reputational risk – values, behaviours, standards are all under scrutiny. The world is more transparent, more judgemental, and less forgiving on those who get it wrong. The biggest takeaway of all – culture matters.
A toxic culture will eventually be exposed and will be an existential risk for those who don’t manage it.
Getting your comms right matters more Sloppy language, loose lips and ill-judged commentary transmits faster and has more impact in today’s world. One poorly phrased sentence saw 20% of SVB’s deposit base evaporate in 24 hours. The messaging of difficult and bad news should be scripted and practised. Communications needs to be front and centre, not an afterthought. There is less room for error and companies need to invest in getting their messaging right.
The glasses are dry, the wallets are bare, and the decorations are a long distant memory. You’ve said ‘Happy New Year’ on Teams every day for the last four weeks, and you’re sure that if you say it one more time, your colleagues will have you committed. Thankfully, the month of January is almost behind us…
The internet tells us it is the most depressing month of the year, with Blue Monday, the post-holiday season and the short days and long evenings. If January were a client, it would be high risk, one that requires a strategic approach and proactive management.
Clearly, January has a reputation problem. But does the reputation match the reality? I have taken the toxicity of brand-January as gospel for years: ‘Hold off any big launches, too much real news around’, ‘‘Don’t organize events, everyone’s doing dry-Jan’. Then, last week I learnt that ‘Blue Monday’ itself was in-fact the machination of the PR machine at the now defunct Sky Travel. My foundations shaken; I sought to find a solution to fix January’s reputational crisis.
Like any good strategist, first, we dived into the data. Combing reams of articles about seasonal blues and piles of data on consumer peaks and trough. Finally, we arrived at our critical insight: January has fewer days of celebration than any other month of the year. Eureka! A strategy to fix this? We needed to find plenty of reasons to celebrate January.
Next came the tactics: what were the good days to shout about (strengths) and the bad days to steer well clear of? There were many more of the latter unfortunately: world hypnotism day (4th) – HR minefield; national squirrel appreciation day (21st) – risk of rabies; national peanut butter day (24th) – serious allergy problems; national croissant day (30th) – likely Brexit issues.
Then, we arrived at the golden nugget: three celebratory days to fix the reputation of January:
Lunar New Year (22 Jan)
The Lunar New Year, like January itself, is misunderstood. Its remains clouded in controversy, having undergone its own internal re-brand of late. But once people start to learn about it, they embrace it.
Here at Hawthorn we marked the occasion with drinks and cheese (moon shaped), while many of our clients took the opportunity to mark the occasion on social. It was progress, but not nearly enough….
In 2024, let’s push the boundaries and make Lunar New Year the ‘Christmas? What Christmas’ celebration that it truly deserves to be. After all, it’s the Year of the Dragon next year. What better way to start the year?
Burns Night (25 Jan)
A stalwart of the calendar year that goes criminally under-leveraged, as far as January’s profile goes. Burns Night celebrates the life of the poet Robert Burns. Our Scottish colleagues get sick of explaining what this means and why we should care.
This year we had the pleasure of taking to the Tower of London with our client who deals in scotch whisky, for a spectacular celebration, just down the corridor from the crown jewels themselves! Anyone on the fence about the strength of the occasion after that was well and truly converted by the end.
In 2024, our goal is to make Burns Night a staple of social (and client) calendar.
Dry January
Dry January rallies and polarizes in equal measure. At no other time of the year does the nation rally behind a coordinated mission to not go to the pub. That sense of camaraderie and minor achievement is rarely seen outside of a major football tournament. And while some may be losing their drinking buddies, others will be gaining a temporary gym buddy. This is to be commended.
At Hawthorn, we’ve stood in solidarity by moving our January social to next month.
In 2024, Dry Jan needs to be celebrated for the achievement that it is. Perhaps a badge for all those doing it? Or a wristband?
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January may bring challenges and uncertainty, but we are excited to have had a successful and productive start to 2023. We have gained new clients, planned exciting events, and have been presented with many opportunities for growth. Let’s embrace January as an opportunity to think creatively and set a positive tone for the rest of 2023.
The Platinum Jubilee celebrations were about 70 years of history but they also turned into a discussion of the character of leadership. The Queen is an outstanding example of servant leadership. As Charles Moore wrote in the Daily Telegraph, the Queen’s role is that of sacrificial service. She does not seek power, her motivation is vocational.
Commentators have contrasted this selflessness with political leadership which is about grasping and retaining power. George Osborne is quoted as saying about the potential coup against the Prime Minister: “Power is not given, it is taken.”
With handy timing, Hawthorn Advisors and Spencer Stuart, both of whom work with corporate leaders and search for them (we’d prefer “find and advise them”) held a dinner on the theme of the future of leadership.
The premise of the discussion was that we are undergoing a generational change in expectations of leadership. Power cannot be assumed, it has to be earned and new qualities of collaboration and empathy are required.
We are witnessing a passing of conventional leaders and followers and in its place a new form of social contract. While we see old style authoritarian leadership across the globe – most tragically in Russia – it is on the wane in corporations. Prepare for challenge – if not quite as dramatically as seen at Westminster.
Hawthorn Advisors and Spencer Stuart assembled for their round table discussion leaders of the future and the present. There were two One Young World ambassadors, Zubair Junjunia and Dara Latinwo. Zubair is an educational activist who founded ZNotes an online learning platform which reaches 3.5 million global students. Dara creates digital disruption at Deloitte.
Also at the table, representing experience and optimism, was John Flint, the former group chief executive of HSBC and now the chief executive of the UK Infrastructure Bank. Next to him, was Freshta Karim, founder of the charity Charmaghz, which runs a mobile library in Afghanistan. Freshta represents the beacon of citizen leadership. When the Taliban outlawed girls’ education, Freshta devised a way of allowing them to read.
Dr Eliza Filby provided academic credentials for our theories, drawing on her work on Generational Intelligence, from baby boomers through to post 2010 generation alpha. Poppy Mills represents transformational change, as the director of Ubitricity, formerly working on Shell’s renewables business. Sasha Dabliz, head of marketing at Waverton Investment Management knows how to direct the flow of money responsibly and profitably.
Kristina Ribas, senior strategy manager at Shell, who began her career at Goldman Sachs, was also questioning of traditional routes and warned of the conflict of using past leadership models to predict the future. Stephanie Edwards, Head of Sectors Strategy at Cop26 was at the heart of transformation, while Charlotte Appleyard, Deputy Director of Development at the Royal Academy of Arts showed the pluck of a young woman leading distinguished elders down new paths. This, said Katy Jarratt, from Spencer Stuart, was the way of the future. Spencer Stuart are busy appointing under 35s to boards and watching the response of the 60 year olds who must answer to them. Generational Intelligence in action.
John Evans, CEO of Hawthorn Advisors, described the entrepreneurial opportunities and challenges of rapid growth with a diverse work force. Zubair began the discussion by talking of motivating volunteers; this requires passion, purpose and mission rather than didactic instruction. John Flint called this catalyst leadership. He also defined the boundaries of leadership; you can set a strategy but you cannot “ lead” on process, such as technology. You are leading people. He added, with the wryness of experience: “ You have to know yourself, and knowledge comes with scars.” You can avoid vulnerability by staying behind your desk but only by risking vulnerability can you achieve a modern kind of leadership. There are two ways of leading, by fear and money, or positively. Inspiration has the longest tail.
Eliza agreed that change has come.
“There has been 30 years of turning humans into robots and robots into humans.”
What does it mean to talk of human leadership? Sasha asked about the evolution of leadership. Are leaders born or made? Learning is now a more communal process and the new work force is drawn to the creative and the unconventional. John Evans called for the alchemy of new ideas combined with experience. Theories have to work in practice.
Dara pointed out that we look for omnipotent leaders in our entertainment, the Marvel superhero. How does that square with vulnerability? Dara posited that leadership needn’t be visible and voluble. It could be invisible and valuable. Mobile libraries in Afghanistan could be an example of leadership as doing good. If leadership becomes communal there are consequences to that. Katy asked which leaders are prepared to take on all the baggage of others. Narcissism is a familiar characteristic of leadership, even among the good leaders. The dangers of leadership were underlined by Eliza – it can’t just be about an ability to have followers. This allows for populists and maniacs.
Freshta talked of the hard choices affecting leadership, including engaging with the oppressor. She said that the leadership open to all of us, is to do what we can, and to encourage open debate even if means sacrificing popularity, or worse. Freshta’s aim is to work for a “ better truth,” through grass roots platforms. Leadership is a facilitation of this. Leadership also demands example.
Several round the table warned about corporate spin without substance. Beware those who got to the top merely by having the sharpest elbows and the determination to shape their own mythology. The different framing of leadership for women and for men was also raised. Eliza picked up that Poppy used the word “ accessible “ leadership rather than “vulnerable. ” Poppy agreed she chose the word carefully. Women are wary of being described as vulnerable.
Charlotte pointed out that leadership under scrutiny changes expectations. Decisions made in jobs in which the public have an awareness or a stake are much more glaring. Stephanie spoke up for the outliers, the radicals, for example on climate, who push the boundaries so that the middle ground shifts slightly for the realists and the pragmatists. She also laid down one essential for leadership, evidence that you care for those who work for you. James Nicoll at Spencer Stuart added the virtues of resilience and empathy.
Who got the table’s votes as role model leaders? John chose Alison Rose, Chief Executive of NatWest Group as an example of modern leadership, Eliza went for Margaret Thatcher as a leader who led rather than followed, Sasha chose Peter Harrison, CEO of Schroders, for his moral compass and for wearing leadership lightly. John Flint said those who speak truth to power and named Alexei Navalny and in happily different circumstances, his predecessor at HSBC Stuart Gulliver.
Freshta wanted a leader who could end wars, Stephanie called for Dame Barbara Woodward, UK ambassador to the UN, Charlotte for former US ambassador to the UK Matthew Barzun and for the artist Ai Weiwei, Dara for Sasha Romanovitch, former CEO of Grant Thornton, for sticking to principles, Katy for Bernard Looney, CEO of BP who leads with vulnerability and transparency. Turning to the world of sport, James Nicoll of Spencer Stuart suggested Toto Wolff, the CEO of the Mercedes-AMG F1 team, who leads through a management style of empathy and empowerment. Zubair thought for a bit, then came back with Muhammad Yanus, the Bangladeshi social entrepreneur who pioneered microcredit. All leaders who make a difference rather than serving time.
The collaborative nature of the evening was achieved partly by swerving political leadership. Hard power is not the same as soft power. Hawthorn Advisors and Spencer Stuart will continue discussions of the nature of leadership through different forums and events during the next years.
As Platinum Jubilee flags appeared on the streets and the Chelsea Flower Show put native nature on show, Hawthorn Advisors CEO John Evans and Hawthorn partner Sarah Sands welcomed a group of extraordinary talents to our Best of British dinner. They were there to answer a pressing question: what makes Britain great?
Our guests were an eclectic mix. Ten years after delighting the world with the cauldron that provided the climax to the London Olympics, the designer Thomas Heatherwick arrived having created a new talking point, the Tree of Trees sculpture, in celebration of the Jubilee. A royal theme was taken up by Anthony Geffen, whose Atlantic Productions have just made the visually stunning documentary on the crown jewels.
From the world of science and technology we had the leader of the Whittle Laboratory, Rob Miller; Frank Strang, CEO of the SaxaVord Spaceport UK and Daniel Golding, global head of corporate communications at McLaren. Anabel Kindersley, co-owner of Neal’s Yard Remedies and nature campaigner brought insight into sustainability. The entrepreneurial dynamism that Britain is looking was embodied by Trinny Woodall, who has created a multi-million-pound company built on women’s beauty products, Andrew Roberts, senior vice president of corporate relations and engagement at Burberry and Meredith O’Shaughnessy, the brand strategist.
It was terrific to welcome Emma Bridgewater, who has not only created a brilliant brand but also revived the art of pottery in Stoke on Trent, and Mark Cropper, whose commercial paper mill has a global reach, and who is now exploring handmade paper craft in the Lake District.
Antonia Romeo, who used to run the GREAT campaign to promote British exports and investment was there to keep us on our mettle, Elizabeth Adekunle, chaplain to the Queen, to ensure we did not lose sight of our humanity.
To kick us off, Antonia reminded us of the original concept of the GREAT campaign. Soft power. It is business, culture and people that create and innovate, with government playing a facilitative role.
And with that in mind we were away, the conversation flowing between big philosophical questions about the British character and big practical questions about the role of government, such as can the government facilitate business during a period of massive financial constraints?
A consensus emerged, led by Rob Miller and Frank Strang: we need more of a liberating vision, less of a strangling bureaucracy. It was not so much a matter of public funding, but of belief in the innovators.
Rob reminded us that leadership in innovation demands conviction and speed. At Cambridge, the vision of a UK “Bell Lab” nurturing critical early stage technology is ready to break ground. £34 million has been raised and there is £20 million to go. Will leadership come from private companies such as Rolls Royce and James Dyson or government funded bodies?
The hard thing for governments, we agreed, is risk taking. “If only the UK Government could find better ways of funding the gut feelings of its leading innovators then the UK economy would be turbo charged and at a fraction of the current research spend,” said Rob. Frank noted the distinction between governmental and private spend. In the space race it is individuals, such as Elon Musk, supported by government to take big risks, who are leading. And it is Americans who are more likely to visit Shetland at the moment. Where we have a combined advantage of innovative technology and geography – Shetland could not be better placed – we must not falter.
We explored tech, including Anthony Geffen’s belief that immersive virtual reality will soon displace the iPhone and that the metaverse is the next revolution. Trinny Woodall was bewildered that we continue to turn out graduates who can read Milton but do not understand the tech economy. And, talking of economics, puzzled that men seemed so poor to judging businesses run by women.
But before we lost ourselves in the metaverse, Emma Bridgewater and Mark Cropper, united in a Quaker philosophy, reminded us of the dignity of making things and providing jobs in places that needed them. Liz Adekunle reminded us that we have a responsibility towards others and should remember the lesson of the pandemic: those key workers who kept the country running, rather than those who ran the country. Anabel Kindersley also spoke for social purpose, and for doing the right thing. She was dismayed that the government’s decision to lift the ban on use of neonicotinoid pesticides for use on sugar beet is killing bees again and has harnessed a coalition of businesses to find some solutions at a forthcoming Bee Symposium.
Little by little, a consensus emerged. The Best of British is scientific ambition, creative possibilities, a business-friendly environment and…something intangible. Thomas Heatherwick summed it up. When artificial intelligence takes over most tasks, what will be left is imagination. Slogans are not enough. You can’t just say Glorious Great Britain, like Incredible India or Amazing Asia. We have to show what we can do.
Hawthorn’s Board Director, Guto Harri, spent 18 years at the BBC before taking on some of the most demanding roles in communications. He presented a number of flagship programmes, was posted to Rome and New York and became the corporation’s Chief Political Correspondent before joining Boris Johnson as his Spokesman and Director of External Affairs at City Hall. In recent weeks he has featured as a commentator on the BBC, Newsnight, CNN, Sky News and many more. We asked him: what advice would you give a spokesperson about to go on air?
Answering the phone to a studio producer who puts you straight on air isn’t generally a good idea; I love it and the day starts with a glorious surge of adrenalin. But I had 18 years to practice. I often speak to Nick Ferrari on LBC before I’ve greeted my wife. But picking the right time, place and outlet to put yourself out there is otherwise a good starting point for any live, on-air commitment. Some of us are bad at breakfast. Others are jaded by teatime, and Newsnight is well beyond bedtime. Play to your strengths.
Think hard about location Most media – these days – give you the option of joining from home or going into the studio. Choose the latter if possible. You will look better. The sound will be richer. The Wi-Fi won’t go down. More importantly, you’ll form a bond with the presenter, and stepping onto a properly-lit set will get you appropriately psyched for the occasion. Home is clearly in your comfort zone, but addressing a bigger audience with limited time and a trained interrogator takes more energy, focus and projection than most of us can engineer over a laptop.
Work out why you’re there? Do their requirements coincide with yours? Are you commissioned to attack or defend? Both involve taking some pain. Think of how you can add context, perspective, or nuance and your insights will land better with a broader audience.
Make it memorable Go light on facts and numbers. Pick one or two that speak volumes and drop the rest. No one’s interested in how hard you work or how much you know. A tasty bone that the audience can chew on is better than a carcass that overwhelms. Tell them something they haven’t heard, and flag it. Make them feel you’re sharing a secret, breaking a confidence, or telling a tale others would keep quiet. Think anecdote, parallel and metaphor whilst gently reminding them of your authority or credibility on the subject.
Surprise the interviewer I challenge myself to surprise the interviewer, making them gasp or even laugh. Pick playful words, create some frisson, or pass on a killer phrase. A former aide to Boris Johnson told me some months ago he’d happily help him again – if he moved swiftly. He was – however – not interested in going back to “walk him to the gallows”. Five words, lobbed into an otherwise pedestrian answer, clearly tickled Laura Kuensberg and Adam Fleming when I joined them for their Newscast recently.
The masochist in me couldn’t resist an on air confession in another recent hit. When most of the world wanted to disown and condemn any association with drink-fuelled “work meetings” with Boris Johnson, I fessed up to launching “wine o clock” in his Mayoral days at city hall. Mad? Maybe. But not against the rules. And the reason why – I remembered very clearly how hard it was to get him to attend. He really isn’t a party animal. Saying that falls on a lot of deaf ears in the current climate. Painting the picture may just have opened some eyes.
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Which brings me to my final point… No one gets invited back to trot out the same old lines. Say something worth saying – from memory, experience or deep reflection. If an answer can be clipped and posted onto social media you will definitely have ticked their box.
Policy preview: defence’s defence UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace has made plenty of headlines in recent weeks amid the emotional withdrawal from Afghanistan. Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab has as well, albeit suffering from more critical coverage amid reports regarding his holiday during the frantic fall of Kabul in early August. However, it is business secretary Kwasi Kwarteng whose actions this month most clearly illuminate the government’s defence agenda.
On 18 August, Kwarteng issued an “intervention notice on the grounds of national security” regarding US private equity firm Advent International take over UK defence manufacturer Ultra Electronics. Just last year, Advent acquired another British defence firm, Cobham, with UK government approval granted in November 2019 under following reviews by former business secretaries Greg Clark and Andrea Leadsom,despite public opposition from Cobham’s founder.
Cobham is more than double the size of Ultra Electronics by revenue and differentiating between their contribution to national security is not so easy. Both provide crucial services such as Cobham’s aerial refuelling and Ultra’s positioning, location and communications technologies, used in many of the UK military’s most advanced components.
The government had telegraphed for weeks that it was likely to make such a move regarding Ultra. Blocking US private equity firms from investing in the UK, even in the defence sector, risks upsetting the UK’s reputation among an investor class that could be key to the UK’s post-Brexit prospects. The review Kwarteng’s notice ushers in will be reported in January, the same time as the UK’s new National Security and Investment Act comes into force.
The action has two motivations – first a desire to ensure that UK manufacturing and engineering of such high-value technology continues. There have been complaints regarding Cobham’s offshoring and Advent’s apparent prioritising of US development sites in the 18 months since its takeover. The second comes amid a push to ensure the UK’s defence sector, and defence strategy, is not wholly dependent on the US, something various Conservative MPs have harked on amid the Afghanistan withdrawal.
This is not a position limited to the Tory backbenches; even the -Blairite New Statesman has warned against the UK becoming dependent on US foreign policy decision making, while politicians such as Rory Stewart have sought to resurrect their careers by calling for a limited UK force to remain in Afghanistan, knowing they won’t be held to account for a policy that will never come to pass.
Boris Johnson and Biden’s lacklustre relationship, and the UK’s search for a new post-Brexit foreign policy mean that such rumblings will continue. However, upon a review of costs, it is likely to become quite clear to Johnson that it will be far too expensive to keep US investment out, let alone invest sufficiently to give the UK independent defence capabilities again.
Where there is smoke, there is not always fire.
“Tony Blair made decisions on what he thought was best for the people of Great Britain, and I made decisions on what I thought was best for Americans” Former president George W. Bush
Power play: a big dail Sinn Féin won the most votes in Ireland’s February 2020 elections for the first time, with 25% of votes. As the coalition between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, traditionally the two main political competitors, faces low public approval and continued strong polling for Sinn Féin, what chance does the leftist radical Republican party have of entering a future government?
Sinn Féin candidates won comprehensively across the country in 2020, with many of the party’s incumbent members, Teachtai Dala (TDs), re-elected on the first count, a rarity in Ireland’s ranked-preference system of constituency proportional representation.
However, Sinn Féin won fewer seats than Fianna Fáil – 37 to 38 – as the party did not run multiple candidates in every constituency. The party has spent the last 16 months preparing for the potential for another election, and to ensure it does not leave ‘seats on the table’ once again – had they more candidates in the last election, it is estimated the party would have received 41 seats. 80 are needed to form a government.
Despite Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil’s opposition – they hold a combined 73 seats – as a result, Sinn Féin is very likely to become a party of government in the medium term.
In recent years the party has sought to broaden its appeal beyond radical Republicanism by embracing left-liberal progressivism in the mould of Greece’s SYRIZA or Spain’s Podemos. This has proved popular amongst Ireland’s younger voters, who form the backbone of Sinn Féin’s electoral success and are driving historic success in the polls, which it has been leading since before Christmas.
Based on the latest polls, Sinn Fein might win as many as 50 seats in the next general election. The Dáil has a sizeable proportion of around 20 independents, predominantly local and leftist candidates, and TDs belonging to smaller left parties such as the Labour Party or Social Democrats. Should Sinn Féin prove successful at the next election, a broad left coalition with Sinn Féin as the largest party could be its route to power.
Aside from strengthening calls for Irish reunification, with Sinn Féin also leading polls in Northern Ireland, a Sinn Féin victory in the Republic of Ireland would prove significant on a number of fronts.
Though its policies may be altered should the party form a coalition, Sinn Féin have pledged to deliver ‘the largest public housing program in the history of the state’ as well as to implement a 3-year rent freeze.
Though it seeks to maintain Ireland’s famously low 12.5% rate of corporation tax, multinational companies should note Sinn Féin’s intentions to tighten the tax environment by closing tax loopholes, as well as their demands on firms to be more transparent about their tax affairs.
Sinn Féin entering government would be a significant landmark in Irish politics, and is a real possibility in the medium term. A radical progressive program would include ramped up social spending on housing and a more sceptical approach to Ireland’s position as low-tax business environment.
“To go for a drink is one thing. To be driven to it is another.”
Michael Collins
Dollars and sense: aiding ailing airlines It is no surprise that aviation has been among the sectors most battered by the pandemic, and which continues to face significant uncertainty about its prospects given the ongoing threat of further viral mutations. The UK government has come under considerable public pressure to do more to respond, with calls from airliners, airports, and the communities that house them for the government furlough scheme to be extended for the sector past the end of September.
So far, however, there has been little reaction to such pleas. Chancellor Rishi Sunak appears to have ruled out furlough extensions in response to a letter signed by 67 MPs from across Parliament calling for such action.
The future of the UK’s aviation sector is not merely a matter for the Treasury, however. Extending furlough would be expensive, but failure to support aviation amid the ongoing uncertainty risks Britain losing out to European competitors, and for London’s status as an international transit hub diminished. One individual unlikely to countenance such a loss is Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng, who represents the constituency of Spelthorne, a hub for employees of Heathrow Airport and related industries.
A number of leading lights in the aviation industry have appealed to Kwarteng, and the government more broadly, for support. Aside from extensions to the furlough scheme, their primary ask has been to seek a reduction in airline passenger duty (APD), the variable tax (depending on class of travel and distance) that passengers pay when booking a ticket.
Numerous APD increases were pushed through Parliament under the Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition from 2010 to 2015, to help pay for government spending as mandated by the era’s dedication to austerity. Shockingly, APD for long-haul flights was again increased in the March 2021 budget. Yet with so many flights still grounded as travels has yet to recover to 2019 levels, receipts have fallen off a cliff. Properly communicated, a campaign for the temporary reduction or suspension of certain APD charges may prove the most effective way to guarantee government support for the sector.
Exemptions to APD already exist – passengers on long-haul flights departing Northern Ireland do not pay the fee. Regional and smaller airports can argue for such an exemption to ensure they survive the pandemic, and help with the government’s ‘levelling up’ agenda. Heathrow and other large airports similarly should position the potential for exemptions as one of the benefits of Brexit to the sector, not normally seen as a winner of the recast EU-UK relationship.
The same March 2021 budget that raised the long-haul APD merely froze it for short-haul flights but Prime Minister Boris Johnson opened the door to a cut for domestic flights only. A consultation is ongoing, but pressure for the government to act should come now – especially as it will become hesitant to do so as the COP26 climate change conference’s 1 November launch approaches.
“Heathrow expansion is supported by businesses, unions, trade bodies, airlines and airports across the country, as well as many local communities whose economic livelihood depends on the airport’s continuing success” Secretary of State for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy Kwasi Kwarteng
Lorna Cobbett, Hawthorn’s Managing Director, spoke with Dr Eliza Filby, a writer, speaker and consultant who specialises in generational Intelligence.
The conversation with Dr Eliza explored how the global pandemic shaped a new generation; looking at the issues and challenges companies face in recruiting, managing and retaining a multi-generational workforce, the importance of human capital and the impact that generational differences can have on a company.
Speakers Dr Eliza Filby, writer, speaker and consultant who specialises in generational intelligence.
Dr Eliza’s research incorporates everyone from Baby Boomers right through to Generation Alpha (those born after 2010) Eliza helps businesses – whether it is recruiting new talent or engaging with new clients – prepare for the future. Eliza has worked for a variety of organizations from VICE media to Warner Brothers Group, from the UK’s Ministry of Defence to the Royal Household, with BYMellon in Canada and Macquarie bank in Australia. She has spoken to banks interested in the imminent Great Wealth Transfer, advertising agencies seeking to appeal to ‘silver surfers’, health companies looking to engage with Millennial Insta-mums. She has spoken at the EU’s Human Rights Forum on teenagers and technology; the Financial Times CEO forum on the future of work and contributed evidence to the UK’s House of Lord’s Select Committee on intergenerational unfairness. She recently published a report in collaboration with the Women’s Network Forum entitled Fueling Gender Diversity: Unlocking the Next Generation Workplace.
Lorna became a strategic communications advisor after a career in investment banking at Citi, Goldman Sachs, and Deutsche Bank. Prior to Hawthorn, Lorna was a Partner at Bell Pottinger for over six years within their Financial & Corporate division. Lorna has over 15 years of extensive experience in providing corporate advice and working on transactions for public and private companies. She enjoys helping a company navigate the challenges of transformation and change, while uncovering the untold stories that will resonate with stakeholders. Lorna is actively involved in fundraising and raising awareness for Chestnut Tree House (a children’s hospice in West Sussex) and Together for Short Lives.
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